Just months after blasting federal vaccine mandates in the third of three special legislative sessions, state lawmakers return to the Capitol for the second half of the 112th General Assembly Jan. 11.
When they reconvene, they’ll draw lines for new legislative districts. The overwhelmingly Republican body also will approve a budget supplemented by billions of dollars in federal funds flowing to Tennessee from pandemic-relief and infrastructure programs passed mostly by Democrats in Washington.
They might also rewrite a 30-year-old formula for funding the state’s K-12 public schools.
Other issues include labor shortages throughout the economy and criminal justice issues. And the COVID-19 pandemic will still demand lawmakers’ attention.
What’s more, the action takes place in a year of midterm congressional elections, a governor’s race and elections for state House members and half of the state Senate.
Here’s a look ahead:
Redistricting
Every 10 years, state legislatures redraw lines for their own legislative districts and for congressional districts. The goal is to reflect population changes and ensure equal representation under the “one-man, one-vote” approach set out in the U.S. Supreme Court’s Baker v. Carr case, a Tennessee case.
The stakes are high. As The New York Times recently reported, “state-level contests … are suddenly moving from the periphery to the center of American politics.” Republicans have the power to re-draw lines for 187 congressional districts, and Democrats hold the same power in 75, the Times reports.
The 2020 census reports the state’s population grew by 8.9%, with 6.9 million residents in 2020 compared to 6.3 million in 2010. Each state House district will now represent nearly 70,000 people, an increase from just less than 64,000 people per district for the past 10 years, the Tennessee House redistricting committee webpage states. The Senate districts will cover about 209,400 people compared to about 192,300 in 2010.
But growth throughout the state has been uneven, with 17 counties growing by more than 10% and 30 counties, mostly in rural areas, losing population. The five counties with the most in growth are in Middle Tennessee.
Republicans enjoy a supermajority in both the state House and Senate, with 27 of 33 Senate seats and 73 of 99 House seats held by Republicans. Gov. Bill Lee also is a Republican. There could be even fewer Democrats in the state Legislature after districts are redrawn, The Associated Press reports.
So far, only the House redistricting committee has released its proposed map. Republicans serve as chair and vice chair of that committee, and four of the 14 additional committee members are Democrats.
If the current House plan is enacted, Democratic lawmakers in Knox, Davidson and Shelby counties would be forced to run against fellow Democratic incumbents in 2022, the AP reported. Two Republicans would face off in the same district covering Grainger and Hamblen counties.
Redistricting will be “all we talk about for the first month,” says Rep. Bob Freeman, a Nashville Democrat who serves on the redistricting committee.
The U.S. Supreme Court decided in a 5-4 vote in 2019 that partisan gerrymandering claims – claims that lines were drawn to favor one party over another – were beyond the reach of federal courts because they were political issues, which the courts can’t decide. Both parties have engaged in partisan gerrymandering over the years.
The state Senate is expected to release its proposed redistricting map closer to the start of the legislative session. The qualifying deadline to run for the state Legislature is in April.
More dollars coming in
Tennessee will receive some $8 billion in federal infrastructure funds starting in 2022. That’s in addition to another $3.75 billion in one-time funding from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Fiscal Recovery Fund. In addition, state tax revenues are coming in well in excess of budget, says Sen. Richard Briggs, R-Knoxville.
A state Financial Stimulus Accountability Group, under the department of Finance and Administration, has overseen the use of American Rescue Plan funds and has made recommendations on how part of these funds should be used.
The state still has to allocate about $848 million of the $3.75 billion to specific projects, the accountability group noted in a Dec. 21 presentation. American Rescue Plan funds can be used for health-related projects, water and wastewater infrastructure, broadband deployment, agriculture and other specified purposes.
The federal infrastructure bill, passed in November, includes funding to repair roads and bridges, improve public transportation, build a network of charging stations for electric vehicles, add broadband infrastructure, protect infrastructure from adverse events such as cyber attacks and extreme weather, improve water infrastructure and add airport infrastructure.
The confluence of three large sources of funds for state projects represents a “once in a generation” event, Briggs says. The money isn’t recurring, however. He says he favors using it mostly for one-time rather than recurring expenditures.
Review of education funding
In October, the Lee administration announced a plan to review the formula used to send state dollars to K-12 public schools. The goal was to make sure the state was “properly investing in students and stewarding our resources well,” Lee said at the time. The Basic Education Program, adopted in 1992, established a formula that’s still in use.
In late December, Lee said it’s possible that lawmakers will be able to consider a new funding proposal from his administration during the 2022 legislative session, the Tennessean reported. Lee, an advocate for school choice, also told the newspaper that the review of public-school funding isn’t connected to school choice or school vouchers, and that he’s also a strong advocate for public education.
Rep. Vincent Dixie, a Nashville Democrat elected in 2018, has long called for state government to invest in children, toward the broader goal of helping improve people’s lives. The governor is on the right track in examining changes to the Basic Education Program, he says. The state also needs to keep focused on helping both teachers and children, saying teachers choose their profession “for the love of the job and the joy it brings,” but they don’t feel supported by government.
Education represents the largest expense in the state budget, accounting for at least $5.6 billion in state funds, the Tennessean reported. Beyond this amount, the federal government provides funding and local counties contribute toward school expenses.
Members of the public can comment on school funding by emailing [email protected]. The comment period ends Jan. 14.
Labor shortages
Five years ago, Briggs says, there wasn’t much talk about labor shortages. Nowadays, “We’re hiring” signs are seen at many businesses, and the last six to eight months have seen labor in short supply in many occupations and professions – from nursing to truck driving, he says. The state Department of Correction has had 45% fewer correctional officers than needed, and there aren’t enough state police, he adds.
Unemployment fell statewide and nationally in November, the most recent month for which data is available, data from the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development reveals.
Six Middle Tennessee counties – Williamson, Cheatham, Wilson, Sumner, Robertson and Rutherford – had unemployment rates at or below 2.5%. (Davidson County had 2.7% unemployment in November.) The county with the highest unemployment rate was Perry, with 5.1%, but that was a decrease from the previous month. Only in 10 counties did the November unemployment rate stay the same or increase.
Criminal justice and judiciary
Lawmakers will consider revamping the state’s sex-offender registry in light of a recent federal appeals court ruling on Michigan’s sex-offender registry law, which is similar to Tennessee’s, says Sen. Mike Bell, a Republican from Riceville. Michigan and Tennessee are both in the same federal court circuit, and there are more than 30 challenges to Tennessee’s sex-offender registry, Bell says.
Bell adds he’s working with the attorney general’s office and the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation on a bill to deal with the state’s sex-offender registry. Bell says he hopes to find bipartisan support for the bill.
Other criminal justice reform measures include extending confidentiality to conversations between victim advocates and crime victims, to allow more freedom in communications, Nashville Democrat Freeman says.
COVID-19
Efforts will be made to fine-tune COVID legislation passed during October special legislative session. News reports indicated employers were concerned that the special session legislation, in its rejection of possible federal vaccine mandates and other mandatory anti-COVID measures, also tied their hands to keep their workplaces operating and as virus-free as possible by choosing to require vaccines.
While courts work out just what the federal government can and cannot require employers to do to keep workplaces safe, lawmakers may tweak special-session legislation to better accommodate the needs of businesses.
The legislature also will revisit COVID liability protection measures passed in 2020 and set to expire at the end of June 2022, Bell says. The law said businesses, health care providers, schools, nursing homes and other individuals could only be held liable for COVID-related injuries if they had been grossly negligent or committed willful misconduct.
Plaintiffs would have to prove the harm done to them by clear and convincing evidence, which is more than usually required.